AI Catastrophic Risk
A fast-moving technology with capabilities outrunning any governance mechanism.
Severity score
55.7
Severe · default weighting
Trajectory
Worsening
What this is
Frontier AI systems are advancing faster than evaluation, oversight or regulation. The near-term harms are concrete: synthetic media, automated cyber operations and lowered barriers to bioweapon design. The tail risk is loss of meaningful human control over critical systems. No binding international framework exists.
Score breakdown
Loss of life
30Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.
Lives negatively impacted
72People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.
Financial cost
70Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.
Environmental impact
34Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.
Trajectory
96Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.