South AmericaEnvironmentSince 1970Curatedmedium confidence

Amazon Tipping Point

The rainforest is approaching the point where it becomes savanna and cannot return.

Severity score

53.2

Severe · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

What this is

Deforestation, fire and drought have pushed parts of the southeastern Amazon into a net carbon source. Beyond an estimated twenty to twenty-five percent deforestation threshold, the forest may no longer generate enough of its own rainfall to sustain itself, with consequences for South American agriculture and global carbon.

Score breakdown

Loss of life

10

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

62

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

58

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

98

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

84

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.