GlobalHealthCuratedlow confidence

Pandemic Preparedness Gap

The world remains structurally unprepared for the next respiratory pandemic.

Severity score

62.2

Severe · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

What this is

Surveillance networks, surge manufacturing capacity, and equitable distribution agreements remain weak or unfunded five years after COVID-19. Zoonotic spillover risk is rising with land use change and intensive livestock production, while political appetite for preparedness spending has fallen sharply.

Score breakdown

Loss of life

40

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

90

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

88

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

10

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

86

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.