Supply Chain and Chokepoint Fragility
Global trade runs through a handful of straits, canals and factories.
Severity score
39.5
Serious · default weighting
Trajectory
Worsening
What this is
Attacks in the Red Sea, drought in the Panama Canal and single-source manufacturing for critical components have repeatedly shown how thin the margins are. Disruption transmits into food and medicine availability within weeks in import-dependent countries.
Score breakdown
Loss of life
8Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.
Lives negatively impacted
58People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.
Financial cost
72Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.
Environmental impact
12Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.
Trajectory
64Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.