The Threat List

Status:Conflict

CaucasusConflictSince 1988Deep-sourcedmedium confidence

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

A resolved territorial war that produced the near-total displacement of a population.

Severity score

22.1

Limited · default weighting

Trajectory

Improving

How this is ranked

What this is

The 2023 Azerbaijani operation ended Armenian control of Nagorno-Karabakh and effectively the entire Armenian population left within days. Border tensions and prisoner disputes persist, and a durable peace treaty remains unsigned.

Score breakdown

Each factor is a 0–100 relative severity index, not the raw figure or a specific time period. The actual counts and periods are listed under "Standardized Impact" on the right.

Loss of life

26

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

36

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

14

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

6

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

16

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.

Audit trail

Everything this entry has been through — when it was first searched for, queued, reviewed and approved, and how its figures and rank have moved since.

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