CaucasusConflictSince 1988Curatedmedium confidence

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

A resolved territorial war that produced the near-total displacement of a population.

Severity score

22.1

Limited · default weighting

Trajectory

Improving

What this is

The 2023 Azerbaijani operation ended Armenian control of Nagorno-Karabakh and effectively the entire Armenian population left within days. Border tensions and prisoner disputes persist, and a durable peace treaty remains unsigned.

Score breakdown

Loss of life

26

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

36

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

14

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

6

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

16

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.