The Threat List

Status:Environment

GlobalEnvironmentSince 1960Deep-sourcedhigh confidenceSourcing reviewed 2026-09-21

Freshwater and Groundwater Depletion

Aquifers that took millennia to fill are being drained within a lifetime.

Severity score

61.2

Severe · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

How this is ranked

What this is

Major food-producing regions in northern India, the North China Plain, the US High Plains and the Middle East are extracting groundwater far faster than recharge. Depletion produces land subsidence, saltwater intrusion and eventual irrevocable loss of storage capacity, threatening the food supply of billions.

Score breakdown

Each factor is a 0–100 relative severity index, not the raw figure or a specific time period. The actual counts and periods are listed under "Standardized Impact" on the right.

Loss of life

16

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

86

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

70

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

86

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

80

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.

Audit trail

Everything this entry has been through — when it was first searched for, queued, reviewed and approved, and how its figures and rank have moved since.

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