Southern AfricaConflictSince 2017Curatedmedium confidence

Cabo Delgado Insurgency

An Islamist insurgency in northern Mozambique sitting on top of a major gas project.

Severity score

33.7

Limited · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

What this is

Attacks in Cabo Delgado have repeatedly displaced hundreds of thousands of people and stalled one of the largest energy investments in Africa. Civilians face abduction and repeated forced movement, and returns are frequently reversed by new attacks.

Score breakdown

Loss of life

28

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

52

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

26

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

10

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

56

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.