The Threat List

Status:Environment

ArcticEnvironmentSince 1990Deep-sourcedmedium confidence

Permafrost Thaw

A carbon store twice the size of the atmosphere is beginning to release.

Severity score

40.5

Serious · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

How this is ranked

What this is

Arctic permafrost contains enormous quantities of frozen organic carbon. As it thaws it emits carbon dioxide and methane, adding warming that is not accounted for in most emissions budgets. It also destroys infrastructure across northern Russia, Canada and Alaska.

Score breakdown

Each factor is a 0–100 relative severity index, not the raw figure or a specific time period. The actual counts and periods are listed under "Standardized Impact" on the right.

Loss of life

6

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

30

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

42

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

96

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

84

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.

Audit trail

Everything this entry has been through — when it was first searched for, queued, reviewed and approved, and how its figures and rank have moved since.

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