West AfricaConflictSince 2012Curatedlow confidence

Sahel Insurgency

Jihadist insurgency and state collapse across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have made the Sahel the global epicentre of terrorism deaths.

Severity score

58.4

Severe · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

What this is

Armed groups affiliated with Islamic State and al-Qaeda have expanded across the central Sahel amid a series of military coups, the withdrawal of Western and UN forces, and the arrival of Russian-linked private military contractors. Burkina Faso alone accounts for a large share of global terrorism deaths. Mass displacement, school closures and blockades of towns have compounded chronic food insecurity and rapid climate stress in an already fragile region.

Score breakdown

Loss of life

58

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

78

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

25

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

50

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

90

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.