The Threat List

Status:Conflict

GlobalConflictNews-derivedmedium confidenceSourcing reviewed 2026-08-19

Small Arms Proliferation

The widespread availability and illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons fuels homicide, armed conflict, insecurity, displacement, and barriers to development worldwide. The cited evidence reports 260,000 small-arms deaths in 2021, representing 45% of violent deaths that year.

Severity score

70.4

Critical · default weighting

Trajectory

Steady

How this is ranked

What this is

Score breakdown

Each factor is a 0–100 relative severity index, not the raw figure or a specific time period. The actual counts and periods are listed under "Standardized Impact" on the right.

Loss of life

85

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

78

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

72

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

25

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

72

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.

Audit trail

Everything this entry has been through — when it was first searched for, queued, reviewed and approved, and how its figures and rank have moved since.

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