East AfricaConflictSince 2006Curatedmedium confidence

Somalia Conflict and Al-Shabaab Insurgency

Insurgency, clan conflict and repeated drought compound one of the worst humanitarian situations on earth.

Severity score

51.6

Severe · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

What this is

Decades of state fragility, an entrenched insurgency and cycles of drought and flood have left millions displaced and dependent on aid. Humanitarian access is restricted across large parts of the country and funding appeals are routinely less than half met.

Score breakdown

Loss of life

56

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

76

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

34

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

20

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

60

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.