The Threat List

Status:Conflict

The Threat List
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East AfricaConflictSince 2023Deep-sourcedlow confidenceSourcing reviewed 2026-08-01

Sudan Civil War

Fighting between the army and the RSF has produced the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis.

Severity score

78.3

Critical · default weighting

Trajectory

Worsening

How this is ranked

What this is

War between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces broke out in April 2023 and spread from Khartoum across Darfur and Kordofan. It has produced the largest displacement crisis in the world, catastrophic famine conditions in multiple localities, ethnically targeted mass killings in Darfur, and near-total collapse of the health system. Reporting access is severely restricted, so death tolls are widely believed to be substantial undercounts.

Score breakdown

Each factor is a 0–100 relative severity index, not the raw figure or a specific time period. The actual counts and periods are listed under "Standardized Impact" on the right.

Loss of life

82

Direct and attributable mortality, normalised across annual and cumulative tolls.

Lives negatively impacted

91

People displaced, injured, food-insecure, exposed or otherwise materially harmed.

Financial cost

69

Direct damage, lost output and health-system spend attributable to the event.

Environmental impact

51

Emissions, habitat and biodiversity loss, contamination and irreversibility.

Trajectory

95

Whether the situation is escalating, and how much worse it is plausibly getting.

Recent coverage

Audit trail

Everything this entry has been through — when it was first searched for, queued, reviewed and approved, and how its figures and rank have moved since.

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